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Diane & Peter


Syria or not Syria, that is here the question ...
Kansas City, 1st of September - The problems, nobody wants to talk about.
Okay, Obama stepped back, he is now asking the Congress. If Congress votes yes to another military adventure, there will be another war, if not, Obama will blame the Congress, he couldn't do anything. It's a simple political equation and it takes the risk from Obama to be impeached for breaking the Constitution again. So, once more, the man in the White House shows off, he is a skilled politician, a great manipulator but a bad leader. Actually, that's nothing new.
The real question is, should the US go to Syria. Of course, there is that nice line about "No Boots on the Ground". It makes things so clean, so riskless. Unless one figures, Syria has missile systems of Russian production. Unless one figures, Russia may feels inclined to go in a stand-off. Or China. Syria actually carries some risk for us. So, is it worth the risk?
The answer to this question depends on soft facts. For Obama it is because he can't back after his "red line" comment. Unless of course, he finds someone else to blame, for example the Congress. But then Congress can't dodge that bullet anyway because deciding over war and peace is a right and therefore a responsibility given to Congress by the Constitution.
One could also argue, it's a question of ethics. Assad used C-weapons against his population. But then, a part of the victims are civilians, another part are rebel fighters hiding out between those civilians. And after already hundred-thousand people died from conventional weaponry, the outrage comes too late anyway. And some of those rebel fighters ... oh my, they are really not what America wants to support. More Islamist based Al-Qaeda affiliates, just like the guys we supported in Libya. Well, not we, Obama, because this one is alone on him. He didn'T ask Congress, you remember. The token of Al-Qaeda's gratitude, we received September 2012 in Benghazi. So, maybe, just maybe, Obama and his Democrats should take the time to think twice whether they want to repeat the same mistake again. Bombing Assad means also to support Al-Qaeda affiliated rebel groups.
So, what about the others? Are there other groups at all? Well, of course they are. Just like in Egypt, there were groups not affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, just as there were western oriented groups in Libya, just as there were such groups in Tunesia, Morocco and Algeria.
But those are not the groups, the Obama adminsitration supports.

FSA fighter, notice the Qua'ran spell on the headcloth!

Actually, cutting down the little money those groups got in Egypt by half was one of the first things, Obama did when he came in the White House. The Democrat who hates democracy made sure, that other groups opposing the Muslim Brotherhood neither got time not money to organize themselves and thus ensured the election victory of the Brotherhood as much as nobody else and that includes all Brotherhood activists.
There are similar groups in Syria. Those are the ones, our government is NOT talking with. Those groups wouldn't win too much from bombings in the first place because the greater tactical mobility of the Islamist groups after air strikes would endanger them instead of helping them. Right now, if Islamists want to kill off the moderate competition, they have to move under the fire of Assad's air force. So the question is, would the US military provide protection of non-Islamist rebel groups not only against Assad but also against the Islamist groups? Did anybody even think about that problem yet?
So, things are not so easy as they appear, as usual. The simplified idea to fly over and throw some bombs to express our disgust appears only intriguing to a simpleton. The reality means, you need to know, who is where, to make sure you throw at the right people ... and that means at least intel on the ground. Unless of course, you want to rely on the reble groupos, but then you will at some point find out, your air strikes hit competing rebel groups instead of Assad's government troops. Another problem, nobody mentioned yet.
So, intervene or not? That also depends on what you think, will happen after Assad is gone. America has a certain naivite to go and kick dictators and think, people can take over from there and form their own democracies. Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt,
Libya, they all struggle to find their way. Of course, the cut and runs in Iraq and Afghanistan before the countries were able to stabilize opened the door for more sectarian and terrorsits violence and Libya without even trying to stabilize anything led us to Benghazi. Which led to four dead Americans, but even worse, demonstrated, how endangered the current political leadership in Libya is and how many fighters Islamist groups can bring up on a moments notice, all equipped with American weapons, thanks to Obama.
Of course, we can bomb Assad out of his palace. No technical problem. But what then? Obama at least didn't say a word about the what then as of yet. So, lets add this all up: Obama wants to go to war without knowing exactly who profits from the air support, ignoring who gets hurt and accidentally preparing that the strongest and best organized group, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamists have the best start chances for the time after Assad while ignoring the non-Islamist groups entirely. He wants to go to war on the premiss, to create a vacuum the strongest can fill by sheer violence and the US wouldn't need to care. Now, here's a newsflash, Mr. President: Hezbollah is also active there, on Assad's side. So the way, you drive this, it can only end up with Syria becoming another Islamist country or an Iranian satellite. That would be Khameini's wet dream, access to the Mediterranean, the rebirth of the Persian grand power dream. And if Al-qaeda winds, given the short cut to Hamas in Israel, the supply with missiles to Ramala would be finally save and not always pestered because of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now, aren't that intriguing outlooks? NOT! So you better think again, Mr. President!

- PB -
... back
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Copyright if not otherwise mentioned Peter and Diane Brendt 2010-. All copies, also in parts, demand the written consent of the copyright holders