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| It's over ... and now it begins again! November 5th, Kansas City: After the election ... |
| One can't but feel a bit relieved. Election 2014 is over, no more political attack ads in TV, no more phone 10 calls a day from campaigns, it is over, finally. The Republicans won, as expected and then, even more than expected, the Democrats lost. The Republicans are in denial when it comes to the reasons why they won, the Democrats are in denial when it comes to the significance of that loss. Talking it "nicer" or "not so ugly" is the politics of the hour ... and in fact ... well, it is over, but it has already begun again. Because in 2016, not only a new President has to be elected, but there will be of course also new other seats up for grabs and then, a lot of them will have Republican incumbents. So, a lot can happen in 2016, a lot will happen and just like 8 years ago, the pressure to make a lot happen is enormous, and so, it has begun again. Now, what is the meaning of those results? That depends who you ask. Republicans will clearly tell you, it was a landslide, a voting against Obama, the first step to take our country back. Democrats will tell you, it was just bad luck and most battleground states were anyway states that voted in 2012 for Mitt Romney, so it means technically nothing. And none of the party officials will talk right now about the deep rifts going cross through the party lines. Well, this will not hold for long, because those rifts will show up even more gaping in the months to come.By all means, 2016 is approaching fast and everybody feels the need to self-aggrandize to paint himself a viable candidate for the White House. The political focus is clear. And still ... there would be a lot of reasons to be careful, for everybody. Because it appears once more, behind all the theater thunder, some important questions got lost ... and even worse, to ask some important people got forgotten. The Republicans have now two years to show, they can be a productive and effective governing machine. Now, there is no Harry Reid in the way anymore to block bills from being voted on. Which means, all those bills will end up on President Obama's desk in the White House and now, he is the last line of obstruction. A lot will be done at least to paint it that way. But to do so, the Democrats will be less able to work over the aisle than they were before. Minority leader Harry Reid will be if anything, even more rabid than Majority Leader Reid was. Not because he really wants to break the way free for Hillary Clinton-Rodham, by all means, he was one of those, who served her cold in 2008 on the altar of the sacrosanct leader Obama. But he fights for his own legacy. The same way, Nancy Pelosi does since four years already. So between Pelosi and Reid, nothing about the Democrat's attitudes have changed nor will anything really change but merely their chances to get through with it. For the Democrats, it's two years to show, the GOP is unable to do anything. Which will, if anything, increase their will to hold the deadlock well and alive as far as they can ... only the deadlock is broken by the numbers and thus, the bills stop now on Obama's desk. All that talk about certain Democrats who want to confront Obama for example about Keystone, it doesn't matter anymore. The urge to keep the power, by any means necessary, will trump any other consideration. It spoke already volumes, how willingly many of the candidates who has voted over and over for Obama and his politics have distanced themselves during the campaigns, not only from Obama, their once so shiny sacrosanct leader figure, but more important, from themselves and what they all stood for just two years ago. The Democrats tried to win once more by telling the voters what they thought, the voters wanted to hear and this time, it backfired. | Which brings the whole circle back to the one important group not asked: The voters.
 Harry Reid - 300 bills left on the desk of Mr. ObstructionSure, there were polls without end and it was kind of amazing how different they ended up all the time after asking the same people the same questions. But the question that matters wasn't asked anyway. People were asked in categories, not freely, like journalists ask politicians in interviews. Thus, the question for the "why" remains in the hands of the politicians who have to re-interpret it by means political convenience. But lets be honest here, a lot of the result was a message for Obama. A lot of the Republicans who went out to vote didn't do so in 2012 because they considered Mitt Romney no option. And there lies the danger! This time, the religious fringe went out to vote and carried the GOP to victory. The bill for that will come. Which places the Republicans in the situation, that religious influence will be strong in the 2016 campaigns and so, in consequence, Republicans will endanger rather the moderate intelectuel conservative part of the spectrum than this religious right. This will of course make the tensions in the GOP more visible and, added pressure by Democrats obstructing wherever they can, will paint the picture, a Hillary campaign will love. For the Democrat'S voters on the other hand, it was stemming the tide. After six years Obama, this country is split, the political discussion has become emotional and all too often malignant. They were used to block any discussion about issues, they only needed to follow directions from Obama, Reid and Pelosi. Now they can't avoid it anymore because a part of their base has vanished. Blacks voted what? 90% Democrats? Amazing and still, it means, they lost about 8-9% of this pure racist motivated votes. Hispanics, who used to vote over 90% Democrat in 2012 ... a lot of them didn't come out to vote at all this time. Okay, this was "only&uot; midterms, but still. Democrats lost strength and are well advised, not to start discussing and if needed negotiating because the "Obama's way or the highway" time is over. Many of the voters casted their ballots not so much for change but to give you, the Democrats hell. That's the price to pay for six years endless arrogance. The chicken of your attitude, they just came back home. And then there are the forgotten ones. Not only Republicans and Democrats were running, even it was, with some exceptions, a slow and not very noteworthy race for them. I'm talking about so-called independents and libertarians. Now, independents like Greg Orman in Kansas didn't count to start with. Campaign-funded by Reid, Pelosi and George Soros, the only question about Orman was always, is he just a disguised Democrat who hopes to win by not admitting to be one or was it already criminal fraud, he tried to pull off there? But there were of course real independents. Now, to make more of an impression, the Independents have to make sure, they don't appear so much as mere voting fodder under wrong label. Newsflash, you don't appear to independent when your guys vote 95% of the time in one block with the Democrats. And then, there were the libertarians. Some things about libertarians, at least in campaign times sound like one crossbred the most rabid | conservatives with the most rabid liberals ... and spiced it up with the occasional sourly taste of reality-loss. Thus, all libertarians did, as in 2012, was to steal a few votes and help to keep Obama in power. Well, not this time, this time, they didn't steal too many votes to make anybody unhappy. What is the quitnessence? In 2016, it will be again a two party race and because it is a presidential election then, it will hang once more more on personal appearance and general pledge to ideology than on issues. Libertarians and Independents will perform some theater thunder, but if they can't stop the Orman-style abuse of their "labels", they will not win anything. For the two big ones, it will end up with how to use those little splinters in the spectrum rather than being worried about them. Which makes the 2016 race a simple equation of Hilary + whoever versus X + whoever. The gubernatorial seats, the House seats and yes, also the Senate seats will basically sold out as an extra gimmick tot he presidential race. The Democrats will let run Hillary ... unless they think, Benghazi or her little Sarajewo stories or her other lies and glitches will take the chance from them to keep power. Then, there could be another "Obama" brought up and supported out of the blue by the inner circle of the Democratic party. The left-leaning voters will have no saying in that and, as it is good Democratic tradition, they will follow the directions because as alternative there would be only a Republican and they are drilled to hate those without looking at issues or facts. The real show will come up on the Republican side. There will be primaries, of course, and Republicans will mean it. Rather than one party, the Republicans are a spectrum of groups and those groups will all consider the potential candidates under their own set of values. The final decision, who runs against Hillary Clinton or the suprise candidate determined by the inner circle of the Democrats, will fall for the Republicans at the voting places, not on any hidden committee or worse behind closed doors made by a few. Which makes the primaries dirty, damaging and at least in the first half of the time, quite unpredictable. That's democracy, brought to you by the conservatives, not the so-called Democrats. So there is nothing wrong with it. But at some point, also Republicans, Teapartiers, Libertarians and modest conservatives have to decide who to chose and who to support. Republicans can't afford another 2012 disaster when the Christian fringe didn't go vote because Romney is a Mormon. In 2016, Is the time for all conservatives to really take back the country. Maybe not as far as some wish, but taking it back nevertheless, unless well, unless some parts of the GOP mess it up because some things aren't going far enough for them. Thus, the next two years, opposite what many in the GOP believe right now, will not be about showing off to the outside, it will be a time about figuring out the internal differences. So, Election 2014 is over, the campaigning for 2016 has begun! Take two aspirin, let the campaign calls go to the machine, start to read up about the issues, do the math and avoid mindless following the self-proclaimed agitators on Internet boards. Because one thing is for sure: Regardless how 2016 will end up, nobody will ask the voter for his real opinion. - PB - |
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