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World in Uproar
March 3rd, Kansas City: Ukraine ... and America |
We all heard about the unrest in the Ukraine, the ouster of the Moscow loyal president and the following escalation with Russia. Now, that's not news. Neither is it new that the Ukrainians have still to figure out, who will be their next president, even some possible candidates emerged already. However, party building, campaigning and elections are may further in an unclear future than ever.
Russia is on the move. If you see the photos from the occupied airports in Savastopol, those men, political correct and euphemistcly call "gunmen" wear Russian army standard gear, they use Russian army standard vehicles and when the shooting begins, my guess is, they will used Russian army standard issued ammo. So yes, there is some reason for worrying and thus, there are also the big words flying around again.
Of course, President Obama warns Russia and especially the Russian President Putin about the consequences of a military intervention. By all means and independent of any justification Obama may has in this special case, there wasn't any crisis in the world yet, Obama didn't abuse to distract from his domestic problems, be it Libya (ending in a non-congressional approved military campaign), Egypt (where his favorite, Muslim Brotherhood Leader Mursi was first pressed against the wall by mass protests of the population and finally ousted by the military) or Syria (where he had the bright idea to bomb for Al-Qaeda the way free right to Assad's C-weapon arsenals). So yes, he opened his mouth again, this time about Ukraine.
Now, I am obviously not the President. So I take the luxury to be realistic here for a moment. What can Obama do? What is possible aside of big words. He warned Putin of unspecified "costs" of a Russian military intervention. So, what costs could that be? Option One is the usual game of boycotts. Now, since Russia is a member of the World Security Council, they have a veto right in the UNO. No way, America will get through with a call for sanctions there. This will end just like most of Obama's foreign politics actions with utter embarrasment for the US.
| Which limits the possibility of boycotts to those trade relationships that are under US control.
 Sevastopol ... have a look at the gear!
For example closing the borders for Russian products. On the paper, this looks quite good. In March 2013, just for comparison, the US exported goods for $917.9 million to Russia and imported for $2493.0 million. So we have anyway a negative balance with Russia. But here is the rub: The main goods Russia exports are oil, natural gas, nickel, palladium, iron and chemical products. Forget iron and chemical products, we can get them elsewhere. But oil is a problem. Since Obama and his cronies blocked the Keystone pipeline and as a consequence of the moratiorium against the offshore oil production in 2011 and into 2012, we rely now with more than half of our demand for oil on Russia and the Middle Eastern oil states. Libya can't uphold the production, Obama took care of that. Iran is under sanctions and we aren't even allowed to buy from them according to the UN resolutions. That leaves mainly Saudi-Arabia and the Emirates. Now, those two are maybe kind of allies and have proven on several occasions, they are willing to help out at a price, but they are currently a little bit uncertain about Obama's administration. The reason is the Iran, which is considered by them as much as an enemy as by Israel, only not so verbal. But keep in mind, those two countries are Sunni-ruled. And since Quatar, the second-strongest of the Emirates and Saudi-Arabia are both supporting the rebels in Sysria, they are already in an undeclared war with Hezbollah, the terrorist organizetion that is officially on the Iranian payroll (officially as in they appear on the official government budgets). Hezbollah | supports Assad.
So, what is the deal? America can block American imports from Russia but the price is higher for the US than it will be for Russia.What else would be thinkable? Maybe a military intervention of the US? Well, Obama is quick in going to war. He threatened it in the Egypt crisis, he did it in Libya and he tried it in Syria. But he prefers to hit on the weaker ones, Russia is way out of Obama's league. And even worse, while Russia is arming up since some years, Obama's cronies cut one upgrade project after the other for our own forces. Zumwalt-Destroyers? Cancelled! Our thirty and thirty-five year old Arleigh-Burkes have to stand against five year and less old Russian warships. Boomers? Well, not really, our Ohios are forty plus years old and catfood for every Akula. Not talking about the newest Russian boomers or the new attack-subs. Fighter jets? Well, the F-35 will take a little longer, but the Su-50 is already delivered? ICBMs? Well, the Russians have upgraded all of theirs in the last three years which makes them, if the rumors are true, able to evade the twenty year old Patriots and Star Wars was deemed a product of Bush's paranoia and therefore became never fully operational. That leaves as only categories to match the Russians the infantrie and the tanks. Well, not really the tanks, five years ago, their upgrade was cancelled. And the infantry would have to fight in any form of military intervention thousands of miles from home hanging on supply routes nobody would actually able to protect. So, bottom line, military intervention is no optiion.
Where does that leave Obama and the unspecified costs? Quite hanging in the outer nowhere. Actually, all he can do is pout and stomp with the feet. And his counterpart Putin knows that very well. He would be careful to pull such a thing off with Bush and especially not with the military under Bush. But now it's Obamerika and who actually fears that? For sure not Vladimir Putin.
-PB-
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