Navigation Article News & Events
Diane & Peter


Mathematical misconceptions ...
Kansas City, Dec 1st, 2011 - Numbers don't lie, people do
Every year, at least for the three last years, December comes up an "unexpected" high number of claims for unemployment defictis. There is nothing new in that and for sure nothing "unexpected". However, due to short memory and the general lack of mathematical understanding, those numbers cause. as usual, a hot-headed discussion about alleged failures, alleged success and more important alleged guilt. Which is basically the reason, why I thought, it's worth to dedicate an article to the mathemaitcal facts behind those loud numbers:
Fact one: New claims raise always with the end of November. A lot of plants produce during the summer for the winter season. You didn't really think, all those fireworks is made during the Fall or early Winter, did you? So for a number of plants, the Christmas business, including temporarily jobs, is already done. This is a factor, that raises new applications at the end of the year. Everywhere and every year.
Fact two: While Christmas brings up a number of temporary jobs, those jobs will not be in any statistics based on November's number. How can they if hiring those temporary manpower starts only beginning of December. So while the holidays cause a number of temporary employments, the will for sure not paint the statistcs nicer, we get beginning of December. And they will not change a lot, because the number of tamporary jobs isn't big enough to compensate for fact one plus the joblosses in other areas.
Fact three: The economy went already through three years of permanent job cuts. That means, most companies are basically reduced down to the edge of operability when it comes to workforce. Normally, that would lead to a decrease in the number of new applications. The companies have nobody anymore, they can fire. But the number of new applications stays high and in fact, it makes no difference whether we talk here five-thousand more or less. That's in the usual statistical uncertainty in a system with so many parameters. Technically, every number above 380,000 in a month, even it would be celebrated as success of politcs, hides exactly one scary truth: Those new applicants are either replacements or even worse, they are new jobless because the companies they worked for went out of business.
Get me right here! Those are of course not the only mathematical effects currently working in or rather against our economy.
Long queues of unemployed waiting at job fairs

There are more, so many more, it would go far beyond the limitations in article length, available here. And I don't claim to know all of those factors. But then, nobody really does, that's the deeper reasons, while the experts are so rarely right on target with their estimations.
My goal here isn't anyway to make everyone an expert in his own rights. The point is to understand, what those numbers really mean:
Number of new claims:Means basically nothing as long as we don't know how many people got jobs in the same time. Standing alone, this number isn't more than smoke and mirrors to acknowledge or contradict a political opinion without complete facts. Or even worse, a blatant attempt to sell voters as stupid.
Net joblosse/jobwins: This number has a certain worth in itself because it tells us how many jobs are really created or lost. However, it is worth to take it with a grain of salt. It includes temporary jobs and government jobs as well. Since government jobs rarely follow the normal market rules, they spoil the statistics by hiding the tendency on that normal labor market. And before some cheer, there is another factor in it, one has to know to understand the meaning of this number: We need basically a monthly net job creation of about 150,000 to 200,000 just to make no loss because every months, people come out of schools and enter the job market. Thus a net job creation of zero doesn't mean we didn't lose. We lost in fact already in that case because we have between 150,000 and 200,000 new unemployed persons out there.
Unemployed Americans: This number is a blatant lie. It tells us, how many people get benefits, not how many people
are without job. After three years of economic disaster,there are thousands and thousands, millions in fact, without job and out of benefits since a long time. They are just not counted anymore.
So, we end up at the question, everybody talks about. Is it the fault of the "evil rich people", who hoard money and fire people? Lets have a look on the math:
The often quoted middle class exists because people have middle class jobs. But the middle class rarely create jobs.
The income and power of the rich is based on investment aka capital gains. Thus, they are a base for job creation, but usally not the source of jobs directly. However, driving this capital power out of the country takes the financial base from the job creators.
Companies, big and small, are the primary job creators. Everyone offering a service or producing a product is a potential job creator and be it only the own job in the first place. But the bigger products get or the more complex services are, the more manpower is needed to render those services and build those products. The often overlooked fact (and it isn't accidentally overlooked) is, that jobs cost money first before they bring in profits. So the companies have to lend money first and hope, it pays out in the future. The "evil rich" give them the money in the hope for future profits.
So forget everything about "trickle down" or "evil rich", you have heard. Of course, wealth trickles down and of course, there is somewhere someone really evil and really rich at the same time, but those are statistical exceptions. Wealth is created by jobs. It's that simple. And without companies, there are no jobs. And without the rich investors, there are no companies. And that, is a hard mathematical provable fact. So, what we need to do is, to make it worth for the investors to invest in America instead to drive them to other countries. Any envy driven movement, any class warfare rethorics from politcs, costs indirectly jobs or prevents the creation of new jobs. Again, it's that simple ... as long politics isn't playing with the numbers to catch mathematically inept voters.

- PB -
... back
Tue, May 17, 2016
12:00 AM CT

Daniel Lee Siebert
Daniel Lee Siebert is now also in our serial killer collection. A more or less garden variety strangler type who got away longer than necessary bacause some big PDs dropped the ball ... and left it to smaller ones, to get the job done.

Fri, Dec 18, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Christman Genipperteinga
THe legendary robber along the wine road Trier-Cologne made it finally into our collection. With a total of 970 victim, including six of them his own children, he is currently the most prolific serial killer in the Collection.

Thu, Oct 22, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Gerard John Schaefer
The allegedly most prolific Florida Serial Killer, "Killer Cop" Gerard Schaefer, finally also made his way into out collection.

Thu, Sep 24, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Royal Russel Long
Long was quite messed up in the investigation of the Wyoming Rodeo Murders, but details show, he was another kind of animal, y typeless pedophile serial killer. Now his file is in our collection.

Mon, Aug 17, 2015
12:00 AM CT

The Wyoming Rodeo Murders
A story of misperceptions and midnless cabinet cleaning by police authorities that ended up with someone getting away with at least two murders on young women. Now in our collection.

Wed, Jul 15, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Joseph Vacher, the French Ripper
Now new in our collection: Joseph Vacher, the French Ripper. The first case, blood spatter analysis was used in a court trial world wide!

Sat, Jun 20, 2015
12:00 AM CST

No new addition in June
Usually, we try to bring another case up in our serial killer collection every month, but this month, we simply had no time. Between working open cases and other activities, it was just not possible. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Sat, May 16, 2015
12:00 AM CT

The Beauty Queen Killer
New in the serial killer collection: Christopher Wilder, the Beauty Queen Killer. A case that shows how nonsensical the disctinction between serial and spree killers really is.

Thu, Apr 16, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Burton W. Abbott
Abbott killed only one victim, a case that caused some public attention in 1955. But he showed all hallmarks of a fledgling serial killer and thus, we added him to our collection.

Mon, Mar 16, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Darren Deon Vann
Ha is basically the usual garden variety strangler case if it wouldn't be for the early warnings statistical data cretated about serial killer activity in Gary/Indiana. Now he is in our collection.

Wed, Mar 4, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Due to technical problems, the March article was up late. Take my apologies for this glitch.

Mon, Feb 16, 2015
12:00 AM CT

Affaire of the Poisons
We have added the infamous Affaire of the Poisons to our collection. With more than 80 offenders, it breaks a little the format, but well, it's one of the biggest cases of "organized" crime ever, so how can we let it out?

Mon, Dec 8, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Joseph Bryan
Once he made the FBI Ten Most Wanted list, now nobody remembers the case anymore. Nevertheless, the father of all allegedly schizophrenic serial killers has entered our collection.

Fri, Nov 7, 2014
12:00 AM CT

The Trailside Killer
David Joseph Carpenter has now become also part of the Serial Killer Collection ... complete with profile.

Tue, Oct 7, 2014
12:00 AM CT

The Vampire of Duesseldorf
Peter Kuerten aka The Vampire of Duesseldorf roamed the city at the River Rhine for more than two years and left behind a trail of bodies-

Fri, Sep 12, 2014
12:00 AM CT

The Grim Sleeper
Lonnie Franklin aka The Grim Sleeper has been added to our serial killer collection

Thu, Aug 14, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Michael Lee Lockhart
... and with a little delay, another serial made it into the serial killer collection. Michael Lee Lockhart, not so much interesting for his "achievements" but because his case appears as if he became a psychopath only after a serious head injury.

Tue, Aug 12, 2014
12:00 AM CT

A Game of Daggers
Diane's new novel A GAME OF DAGGERS is now available at Amazon for Kindle. A story of murder, mayhem and political intrigue set up in the year of the Lord 1096.
Pope Urban II has called for a crusade, but this news has yet to reach Cornwall. And people there have anyway to deal with other problems from storms to wreckers on their coast and when some murdered men are discovered on the beach, nobody guesses, this is only the prelude to much greater events coming to the so remote shores ...

Sat, Jul 5, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Ivan Hill
Ivan Hill, as the first of the many serial killers, who haunted Los Angeles in the 80s and 90s, is now added to our serial killer collection.

Sun, Jun 8, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Raya and Sakina
The famous Egyptian serial killers have become part of our collection. And as so often, things are not as simple as the urban legend tries to tell us.

Thu, May 1, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Dagmar Overbye
The infamous Danish baby farmer has been added to our Serial Killer Collection.

Thu, May 1, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Pharaoh Djoser added to the Egyptian Collection
I finally came around to add a new pharaoh to our collection: Djoser, 1st Pharoh of the 3rd Dynasty.

Fri, Apr 4, 2014
12:00 AM CT

The Green River Killer
This month, we added Gary Ridgway to our serial killer collection, a case, not so much interesting for the profiling but for the lessons about case organization to be learned from it.

Tue, Mar 4, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Manson Family
The "Manson Family&quo; has been added to our serial killer collection. Especially interesting for those who think, brain washing isn't possible.

Fri, Feb 7, 2014
12:00 AM CT

Hans van Zon
Dutch serial killer Hans van Zon joined our serial killer collection. Not entirely voluntarily though.

Mon, Jan 6, 2014
12:00 AM CT

The Syracuse Dungeon Master
John T. Jamelske aka the Syracuse Dungeon Master has been added to our Serial Killer Collection. While not a seria killer but a serial rapist, Jamelske represents a similar psychopathology as some OCD type serial killers, for example Dahmer and therefore is some valuable object for studies.

Thu, Jan 2, 2014
12:00 AM CT

The last of the 2nd dynasty pharaohs, the man who re-united Egypt, is now also in the Egyptian collection.

Thu, Dec 12, 2013
12:00 AM CT

Pharaoh Sekhemib added to the Egyptian Collection
I finally came around to add Pharaoh Sekhemib to the collection, the sixth of the 2nd Dynasty. So, with some luck, I can finish this year the 2nd dynsty, only one, Khasekhemwy is left.

Tue, Dec 10, 2013
12:00 AM CT

The Riha disappearance
In 1969, Dr. Thomas Riha disappeared and in the subconsequent series of events, Gloria Tannenbaum was arrested for forgery and under suspicion of two other homicides. She plead not guilty by reason of insanity and got away with it. The case has now been added to our serial killer collection.

Mon, Nov 4, 2013
12:00 AM CT

Richard N. Clarey jr.
Clarey is one of the lesser known serial killers, skirting the definition a little. Still, for some reasons an interesting case.

Wed, Oct 2, 2013
12:00 AM CT

Now in the collection: William E. Cosden
A garden variety sexual predator, notable only because his existence shows, how wrong the idea of 1 monster at 1 time in 1 area is.

Copyright if not otherwise mentioned Peter and Diane Brendt 2010-. All copies, also in parts, demand the written consent of the copyright holders